Russia’s Methane Emissions And The War In Ukraine

Columbia Center on Global Energy Policy

January 12, 2023

Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in February 2022 and the ensuing war have not only wreaked havoc in oil and gas markets, raising daunting energy and economic challenges for European and other energy-importing economies, but they have also spurred grave environmental and climate-related concerns. These arise in part from the impact of the conflict on import-dependent energy consumers, among whom record natural gas prices and heightened global competition for liquefied natural gas (LNG) supplies have encouraged a resurgence of coal burning and associated greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, as well as a renewed policy focus on energy security, potentially at the expense of climate ambitions. But the conflict also raises serious concerns about the emissions trajectory of Russia itself, a top fossil fuel producer and leading GHG emitter. Even before the invasion, Russia counted among the world’s main sources of anthropogenic methane (CH4) emissions, a greenhouse gas whose short-term warming power is more than 80 times that of carbon dioxide (CO2). Since the invasion, the prospect of reducing these emissions has seemed increasingly unlikely. While the broader climate consequences of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine have been debated at some length, neither its specific implications for Russia’s methane outlook nor the mitigation options available to policy makers outside Russia have received the attention they warrant.